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DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/10 11:06
Corn, Beans Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed
Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, and wheat is 2
cents lower to 4 cents higher.
David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 170 points. The dollar
index is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer
with crude up $0.50. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious
metals are mixed with gold flat.
CORN
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with position squaring ahead of the WASDE
report at 11 a.m., with a return to forecast watching after that. The USDA
confirmed 1.365 million metric tons sold to China combined for old and new
crop. The forecast has more heat the second week with projected rain coverage
into late July very mixed. The ethanol margins have narrowed a bit but remain
positive. The WASDE report is expected to show 2.27 billion bushels of old crop
carryout, and 2.683 billion of new, with yields likely untouched for now. On
the September contract, support is the 20-day at 3.37 with resistance the upper
Bollinger Band at $3.54.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with trade holding at the upper end of
the range pre-report. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower, and oil is flat to 10
points higher. The ral remains at the midpoint of the recent range vs. the
dollar. Crush margins have seen little change in recent days. Drier weather
into mid-month for many will add support but concerns are more limited for now.
The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 584 million bushels of old
crop, and 416 million of new, with yields holding steady for now. The August
soybean chart resistance is the $9.03 fresh high, with support the 20-day at
$8.77.
WHEAT
Wheat is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher with Chicago trade continuing to
lead action. The ruble remains in the recent range vs. the dollar with Russia
winning export tenders so far this week as the U.S. rally sharper than the Euro
rally with harvest pushing forward across the northern hemisphere. Kansas City
is at a 74-cent discount to Chicago with spreads sharply wider the last three
days, while Minneapolis is back to a 4 cent discout. On the report, wheat
carryout is expected to be at 948 million bushels. The September Kansas City
chart support is the 20-day at $4.43, which we closed above today with the
upper Bollinger Band at $4.59 the next round up, which we tested yesterday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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