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DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/28 11:07
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents lower, and wheat is
flat to 4 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 490 points. The dollar index
is 30 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are firmer with
crude $0.18 higher. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with
gold up $9.
CORN
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade bouncing back from
the early test of support as harvest expands. The daily export wire had sales
of 207,140 metric tons sold to unknown, and 110,800 metric tons to Japan.
Ethanol margins are steady with unleaded holding near the upper end of the
recent range. Basis should see pressure this week with more bushels coming in
to town. Weekly export inspections were ok at 806,327 metric tons, with weekly
crop progress showing steady to slightly lower conditions with maturity and
harvest ahead of average. On the December contract, trade has support at the
$3.65 20-day moving average which are tested overnight then the $3.52 lower
Bollinger band, with the recent high at $3.78 as resistance.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 6 to 7 cents lower with trade seeing further harvest
pressure and long liquidation ongoing to start the week, even as we saw further
export sales of 218,300 metric tons to unknown. Meal is 7.50 to 8.50 lower and
oil is 5 to 15 points higher. The ral remains in the lower end of the range
ahead of South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while
Argentine farmer selling remains slow, with Brazil heavily sold ahead. Export
offers continue to get tighter in availability as well with meal driving the
product complex while strain on domestic logistics will increase as shipping
pace needs to rise with export inspections a little disappointing at 1.211
million metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady to lower
conditions with maturity and harvest ahead of normal. The November chart has
resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $10.46 3/4 which is also the fresh
high with support the 20-day at $9.93 which we have tested this a.m.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents higher at midday with light buying emerging
after early weakness. Export competiveness remains about the same with the
focus remaining on Europe dryness along with US plains progress. KC is at a
68-cent discount to Chicago with spreads narrowing after the recent strength,
while Minneapolis is back to a 18 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat
drilling progress should expand across the plains short term with ok moisture
for most for now but follow up rain lacking overall. Weekly export inspections
are expected were good at 563,427 metric tons, with planting progress nearing
halfway with emergence a little better than average. KC December chart
resistance is the fresh high at $5.09, and support is the 20-day at $4.78,
which we are just above with the lower Bollinger band the next level at $4.61.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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