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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/04 12:10

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 5 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 12 to 13 cents lower, and wheat is 
3 to 10 cents lower.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 100 points. The dollar index 
is 6 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with 
crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold 
up $25.


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with steady conditions and larger 
yield estimates pressuring the market. Ethanol margins are a little narrower 
with the flatness in energies and the end of summer driving season looming. 
Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days, with isolated pockets of 
pre-harvest strength for now. Weekly crop progress had corn at 72% good to 
excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, unchanged on the week, with 92% silking 
vs. 87% on average, and 39% in the dough vs. 33% on average. On the September 
contract, trade continues to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.28, with chart 
support at the lower Bollinger band at $3.13 which we are testing at midday.


   Soybeans trade is 12 to 13 cents lower at midday with the condition report 
and yield estimates also weighing on the soybean action with further export 
business needed as a demand driver. Meal is 3.00 to 4.00 lower and oil is 10 to 
20 points higher. The ral remains at the upper point of the recent range vs. 
the dollar, which should keep new crop interest robust, although we are losing 
ground to start the week. Weekly crop progress showed conditions 1% better at 
73% good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor, with 85% blooming vs. 82% on 
average, 59% setting pods vs. 54% on average. The September chart now has 
resistance at the 20-day at 8.90 which are pulling back from, and support the 
lower Bollinger band at 8.74.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade testing the lower end 
of the recent range as spring wheat harvest expands and winter wheat wraps up. 
The ruble is holding vs. the dollar. KC is at a 87-cent discount to Chicago 
with spreads back to the top end of the range, while Minneapolis is back to a 8 
cent discount with slight weakness in the intermonth spreads. Weekly crop 
progress showed harvest 85% complete vs. 88% on average, with spring wheat 73% 
good to excellent, and 5% poor to very poor, and 5% harvested vs. 10% on 
average. KC September chart support is the recent low at $4.23 3/4, with the 
20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.45.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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